Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics
Rapid spread of the Mexican flu not necessarily a bad thing
According to Dr. Maarten Boerlijst, assistant professor in Theoretical Ecology with the Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics (IBED) it is not necessarily a bad thing if the Mexican flu spreads rapidly through The Netherlands.
Boerlijst: "Currently, the virus is still relatively mild. However, viruses mutate constantly which could cause the virus to become more aggressive. With a rapid spread of the current virus the human population would build up immunity also against future variants of the virus.
At the moment, as Boerlijst explains, The Netherlands are in the early epidemic phase of the pandemic New Influenza A (H1N1v). The southern hemisphere has already experienced the firs epidemic during their winter in the last few months. In our region the epidemic is currently ‘mild', but it is expected to reach epidemic values within a few weeks.
Rough estimates are that approximately thirty percent of the Dutch population will be infected with the Mexican flu. A new virus does not cause an epidemic until its properties are such that on average every single sick person infects more than one healthy person. Young children usually are the driving force behind the annual flu epidemic, because they do not have resistance against the disease yet. In case of the Mexican flu, also the other age groups are sensitive, causing the epidemic to spread much more rapidly.. Normally it is especially babies, the elderly and other individuals with compromised health that are vulnerable for the flu as they have an increased chance of complications such as pneumonia. This pattern seems to also hold for the current pandemic virus.
Boerlijst: "The good news is that the Mexican flu turns out to be relatively mild, in contrast to for instance the Asian avian flu (H5N1) that threatened to become pandemic around 2005. As a result it seems sensible not to actively combat the spread of the Mexican flu epidemic, so as to allow the population to acquire immunity against this new flu type. However, of course risk groups should be vaccinated as proposed by the Dutch Health Council (Gezondheidsraad). The coming epidemic will most likely cause a higher number of people to fall ill than during a normal flu epidemic, but the consequences are expected to be relatively mild, although it will cause excess deaths."

