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1. If this does not look immediately obvious, consider that either
E = [T2 = t] = my (Lizzi's) tth confirmation was lost,or
<em>F = [T2 = t] = my tth confirmation was received and Joanna's tth confirmation was lostmust occur, and that 1(T1 = t | E) = 1(T1 = t | F) = 1 because Lizzi can see her own computer screen, so we can apply Bayes' Theorem as follows:
1(E | T1 = t) = 1(T1 = t | E) 1(E)
1(T1 = t | E) 1(E) + 1(T1 = t | F) 1(F)= 1(E)
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1(E) + 1(F)=
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+ (1)
First published: August 27, 2001
Content last modified: August 27, 2001