Stochastic calculus with applications to mathematical finance 1999-2000


Course Contents

M. Loeve wrote in 1973: "Martingales, Markov dependence and stationarity are the only three dependence concepts so far isolated which are sufficiently general and sufficiently amenable to investigation, yet with a great number of deep properties". Of these three concepts we will treat martingales only. A standard example of a martingale is Brownian Motion (already used by Bachelier in 1900 to describe stock price fluctuations), which lies at the basis of the definition and construction of stochastic integrals.
Stochastic integrals are first defined by It\^o in the fourties with Brownian motion as integrator. The problem here is that a pathwise construction as Stieltjes Integrals is not possible, since the paths of Brownian Motion have infinite variation on compact intervals. Later on the theory has been expanded to include integration with respect to semimartingales. Actually these processes form the most general class for which stochastic integration can be defined in a sensible way. In this course we will concentrate on stochastic integration with respect to locally square integrable martingales with continuous sample paths. This yields a class of processes that is sufficiently large for a variety of applications although there are also shortcomings.
An area of vivid research in applied probability these days is that of Mathematical Finance where especially (but not only) processes with continuous sample paths and stochastic integrals are used as a vehicle to model behaviour on stock markets.

The program of the first part of the course comprises the following subjects. Martingales, stopping times, filtrations, Doob-Meyer decomposition, Brownian Motion, Stochastic Integral, Ito rule, representation of continuous martingales in terms of Brownian Motion, Girsanov theorem, stochastic differential equations (existence and uniqueness of weak and strong solutions). A good impression of this part of the program can be obtained by having a look at chapters 1,3 and 5 of the book Brownian Motion and Stochastic Calculus by Ioannis Karatzas & Steve Shreve (2nd edition, Graduate Texts in Mathematics 113, Springer).

In the second part of the course (2 lectures), the ideas of the first part of the course will be applied to term-structure models. It is clear that in the bond market the prices of bonds cannot follow a Geometric Brownian Motion since the bonds will pay there fixed principal values at maturity date. Of course, this also implies that, when pricing bond options, the Black-Scholes formula for stocks as treated in the first part of this course should be adpated.
The ideas of modelling the term structure and the consequences for option pricing in the case of bonds will be illustrated from an empirical perspective.

No special knowledge about the theory of stochastic processes is required, but participants are assumed to be familiar with measure theoretic probability.

Literature

Available are the transparencies of the first part and some additional comments (both as PostScript files).
 
 
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