Statistics 2002-2003
PhD course Tinbergen Institute

Contents

The course is intended for students who have a deficiency in probability and statistics. It starts off with the very first principles of probability and quickly passes on to essential statistical techniques. Estimation and testing theory will be reviewed, including maximum likelihood estimators, likelihood ratio test and (least squares) regression. The course is based on John A. Rice, Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, Duxbury Press, Belmont, California. From this book we will treat the chapters 1-6, 8, 9 and 14. All together the topics will be treated in 8 lectures. Students are required to study the corresponding theory and examples in the book as well as to make accompanying exercices.

In the course we treat the following topics.

Sample spaces, probability measures, conditional probability, independent events, Distribution functions, random variables with discrete and continuous distributions, functions of random variables, Multivariate distributions, random vectors, independent random variables, conditional distributions, functions of random vectors and their distributions, Expectation and variance, covariance and correlation, conditional expectation, the law of large numbers, central limit theorem, chi-square and distributions, Estimation, method of moments, maximum likelihood, large sample theory, confidence intervals, Cramer-Rao bound, hypothesis testing, Neyman-Pearson paradigm, likelihood ratio tests, confidence intervals, Linear regression, least squares estimation of regression parameters, testing regression hypotheses.

Literature

John A. Rice, Mathematical Statistics and Data Analysis, 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press, 1995
Available additional notes are an exercise with normal distributions (in pdf)
You may also want to see copies of the slides (in ps or in pdf).

Examination

Written exam; you are allowed to use the book and a pocket calculator.
Date and time: October 8, 10.00 - 13.00 hrs
Place: Universiteit van Amsterdam, Faculty of Psychology, Roetersstraat 15, Room A4-06.

Lecturer

P.J.C. Spreij

Schedule

Lectures
Tuesdays: September 10, 17, 24, October 1, 09.30 - 12.00
Wednesdays: September 11, 18, 25, October 2, 13.30 - 16.00



Programme

Lecture 1a Rice, chapter 1
Exercises: chapter 1: 1, 4, 5, 11, 19, 27, 33, 53, 57, 63, 65
Lecture 1b Rice, chapter 2
Exercises: chapter 2: 3, 5, 13, 21, 23, 27, 33, 41, 44, 53, 55, 59
Lecture 2a Rice, sections 3.1-3.4, 3.6 (not all details, skip parts that require more than basic knowledge about multiple integrals)
Exercises: chapter 3: 1, 3, 7, 17(a,b), 32, 34, 37, 38, 55, 57
Lecture 2b Rice, sections 3.5, 4.1-4.4 (also read about correlation, which has not been treated in the classes)
Exercices: chapter 4: 2, 4, 6, 12, 31, 34, 45, 46, 53, 64, 65, 71
Lecture 3a Rice, chapter 5 (skip the considerations involving moment generating functions), sections 6.1, 6.2, extra on multivariate normal distributions
Exercices: chapter 5: 1, 3, 9, 12, 13, 15, 17, 23, 26
Lecture 3b Rice, sections 8.3-8.5.2, 8.6
Exercises: chapter 8: 4, 5, 8, 17, 19ab, 39, 42, 44, 49
Lecture 4a Rice, section 6.3, sections 8.5.3 (you also read pages 202, 203), 9.1-9.4
Exercises: chapter 8: 52, chapter 9: 1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 9, 12, 15, 18, 7, 21
Lecture 4b Rice, section 9.5, sections 14.1-14.4
Exercises: 1, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 20, 24, 25, 31



To the Korteweg-de Vries Institute for Mathematics or to the homepage of Peter Spreij.

Email: spreij@science.uva.nl